Iran in 2009 =/= cold warIran in 2009 =/= cold warIran in 2009 =/= cold war
With props to Just Jo Nubian for “The powers = chess”, Davey D for covering this first, and Clay Shirky for the big picture. You all rock my world with your amazing selves. <3
Somewhat distressed over anti-Empire folks from both the progressive left and the anti-NWO right pointing to CIA involvement in Iran in response to recent events. Consider the following scenario, which is based on history + unfolding events; please read accordingly:
Ahmadinejad is asserting that the Iranian uprising is a result of U.S. interference, which is being further reinforced by assertions by anti-Empire activists in the U.S., who point to this history of U.S. intelligence involvement in Iran both historically and as recently as 2008. This argument -– CIA involvement = U.S. backed destabilization — harkens back to the cold war; and while said argument is a matter of record -– the CIA was actively involved in the 1953 coup which brought the Shah to power, for example -– what is also clear is that Iranians in opposition to the current leadership have their own agenda. The inference from some anti-Empire activists that the CIA may have had a hand in the uprising also infers a conflation of the actions of Iranians in opposition to the present leadership with the CIA’s interests — an assertion which is very possibly inaccurate as well as enabling of both Ahmadinejad’s assertions of U.S. interference and the neo-conservative utilization of the present scenario to their own means; in particular, it gives U.S. neo-conservatives an opportunity to attempt undermining of President Obama’s seemingly more nuanced approach, while furthering their own militaristic objectives in the region – hardly an ideal situation for people who are in opposition to U.S. hegemony.
While the legacy of CIA destabilization of regimes around the world remains to this day, the problem is that we’re not in the cold war anymore. Instead, what we have is a global matrix of power that encompasses multiple social forces, both governmental and civic, that are approaching any given scenario -– all with their own needs, desires and objectives, some of which layer over the top of one other. If the cold war is drawn in analogy to checkers, what we have now is chess, of which the internet is a small but very important part, and even more ubiquitous communication tools (cell phones in particular) are actively a part of as well. Losing sight of this means that you’re looking at a different situation, with predictable outcomes, many of which are anything but liberatory.
Lessons so far:
This is the Iranians’ struggle for a new system, period. All of us on the outside who care about that struggle are just the helpdesk, if you will.
The history of CIA involvement in Iran is clear; what is also clear is that there are multiple interests at stake here. Conflating things into a cold-war like form of bilateral detente/brinkmanship is a deeply flawed analysis of this situation, and if anything, reinforces both the current Iranian leadership’s anti-U.S. assertions, as well as the U.S. neo-conservatives’ anti-Iran ones.
Decentralized tools increasingly multiply the chances of decentralized action using those tools (Shirky, 2008, “Here Comes Everybody”). This reality turns an already highly complex global scenario into a vastly more intricate one. Chess, not checkers; and losing sight of that has potentially unfortunate consequences, both for the players as well as those impacted by the “game.”

